"Ceasefire In Gaza" is the new "Peace Process"
The United States continues to refuse to put material pressure on Israel. Sunday was just the latest example of Netanyahu torpedoing a nascent ceasefire deal.
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On Friday, reports began to flow from Doha about “productive” and “positive” talks among the negotiators for a ceasefire in Gaza and concomitant hostage release. Such reports have become a familiar event since the temporary ceasefire back in November showed the world that ending the genocide was the only effective way to stop the bloodshed and bring prisoners back home.
On Sunday, like clockwork, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he would not give any ground on Israel’s key demands. Netanyahu did not specify those “key demands,” but in the past, Netanyahu has vowed not to end Israel’s operations until it has achieved “total victory” over Hamas, a goal which even the IDF agrees is impossible. Netanyahu has more recently added a demand for an on ongoing Israeli presence along the Philadelphi Corridor at Gaza’s southern border, at the Rafah crossing with Egypt, and at the Netzarim Junction, which essentially bisects Gaza into northern and southern sectors. Effectively, this means ongoing Israeli control of travel into, out of, and within Gaza.
Netanyahu added that a full Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor is out of the question. He insisted on this despite the objections of his own negotiating team. This is not the first time such a thing has happened, and in the past, Israeli negotiators have leaked to the press that Netanyahu has been sabotaging the deals. That’s what he did on Sunday. Again.
Regardless of how anyone views Hamas, there is no way any party, no matter how accommodating, would accept the other side constantly moving the goalposts every time an agreement was at hand. Hamas has repeatedly stated it accepts the Biden proposal, even though there are clearly loopholes in it that are quite likely to be exploited by Israel to either restart the genocide or impose such strictures on the people of Gaza that a new spark in the still-tense Strip would be inevitable.
Netanyahu’s conditions are entirely inconsistent with the proposal U.S. President Joe Biden presented at the end of May. He does not raise these new demands expecting them to be honored. Rather, they are intended to block the possibility of a ceasefire.
Netanyahu expects, with good reason, the United States to cover for him, as they have done throughout the past ten months, destroying what little credibility the U.S. had left not only in the Middle East but throughout the world.
Hamas reacted to Netanyahu’s latest chicanery, stating, “After being briefed by the mediators about what happened in the talks in Doha, we came to the conclusion that Netanyahu continues to place obstacles in front of an agreement and sets new conditions and demands in order to undermine the mediation efforts and prolong the war.”
This is indisputably true. And the timing of Netanyahu’s latest statements cannot be ignored. They came just as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel, ostensibly to shepherd the final phase of the ceasefire agreement that now lies in tatters. This was an explicit “screw you” to the Biden administration, an intentional embarrassment, doubtless meant to spur critics of Biden and Kamala Harris from both the pro-Palestinian left and the Republican right assailing the Democrats’ bumbling on this issue.
Republicans would be doing even worse, but that doesn’t change the fact that the criticism of Democrats—not only Biden, but much of the party—have handled the Middle East about as badly as they possibly could have, in terms of both policy and politics.
Ongoing Regional Instability
The Americans, as well as the Qataris and Egyptians, have been focused on staving off a regional escalation with these talks. But with Israel so brazenly sabotaging any possibility of a ceasefire yet again, that effort has likely failed as well.
Iran, Hezbollah, and the rest of the Axis of Resistance were willing to wait and see if there was to be a ceasefire in Gaza before retaliating against Israel for its assassinations of Hamas’ leader and chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh and prominent Hezbollah figure Fuad Shukr, among others in recent days.
If a ceasefire was reached, Iran might have put retaliation on hold. Both Hezbollah and Ansar Allah in Yemen (the Houthis) have stated that they will cease their attacks on Israel and in the Red Sea if Israel ends its genocide in Gaza. It is in all of their interests to do so, as they will be seen as swallowing their own national pride for the sake of the Palestinians. And, in any case, Israel is certain to give them cause for retaliation again before too long.
Now that the talks have collapsed again, the probability of an attack, possibly a joint one, from Iran, Hezbollah, and/or Ansar Allah comes back full force. The point of these so-called “positive talks” was to stall in the hope that it would lead to a cooling of tensions and avert a strike on Israel so severe that Israel would escalate against Iran again. The extra time also allowed the movement of U.S. forces into the region to be completed, with the hope that this would further deter the Axis’ of Resistance’s response.
The next few days are likely to tell us whether this worked or not, but the most likely outcome is that Iran, Hezbollah, and the various regional militias are going to strike. It is entirely possible that multiple sites will be targeted by the various groups, and that those targets will include American as well as Israeli locations. Iran has made it clear that they hold the United States responsible for the regional escalation alongside Israel, and this is an understandable position, given not only ongoing and massive funding the U.S. is providing Israel, but also the propaganda, half-truths, and straight up lies the Biden administration has unleashed like a tsunami since October 7.
Can there be a ceasefire?
There can and must be a ceasefire, but it is not going to come without serious and significant action by the United States. The UK has initiated a judicial review of its arms sales to Israel and has suspended sales of offensive arms in the interim. But the new Labour government doesn’t seem eager to take this step and has not stopped any approvals or sales. In any case, the UK is a minor arms supplier to Israel.
As I recently discussed elsewhere, polls in the United States indicate that Democrats could withhold arms sales from Israel to force a ceasefire and voters would support it. The trouble is that certain major donors, especially tech and weapons PACs and individual donors such as Haim Saban would not, and this scares Democrats far more than the prospect of the blood of thousands more innocents on their hands.
Yet, if the Biden administration decided to use the leverage it has over Israel, it would not stand alone. Israel’s military and intelligence establishment have backed a ceasefire for months. This even includes Netanyahu’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a man who is as eager to destroy Hamas, and as indifferent to the suffering of Palestinian civilians, as anyone in Israel.
More Israelis support a ceasefire deal as well. While the genocide in Gaza remains popular in Israel (and that is worth discussing in depth itself), Israelis have felt, from the start, that the Netanyahu government cares little for the fate of the Israeli hostages in Gaza, and at this point, many are willing to end the genocide permanently, even if they think it justified, to get those hostages home.
Yet this is also why the contours of a ceasefire agreement must be carefully constructed, as those domestic forces as well as the Biden White House would be far less eager to press Netanyahu if there were no Israeli hostages in Gaza. Biden, as we know too well, places no value on the lives of Palestinian children, but he does care about seeing Harris win in November. The ceasefire proposal has always been framed as a deal to “release the hostages,” and if that should happen in a manner that allows Israel impunity to start the genocide again once those hostages are home, only some of the Israelis and Americans protesting the slaughter in Gaza right now would return to the streets.
So what is the way forward?
Joe Biden has lost all credibility in this matter. In recent weeks, he has leaked reports of telling Netanyahu to “stop bullshitting” him, and last week, one that warned Netanyahu that if he derailed talks again, the White House would consider blaming him, along with Hamas, for the failure. It is hardly surprising that these weak steps produced nothing but contempt from the Israeli Prime Minister.
Is there something Kamala Harris can do? In my recent piece at Mondoweiss, I laid out some specific policy options that she could announce that would amount to at least some pressure on Netanyahu but would remain within the basic Democratic, pro-Israel framework. It is unrealistic to hope for more than that from her, especially while Biden remains in office.
But even such proposals could have a ripple effect that magnify their impact. Netanyahu’s negotiating team is frustrated and angry. They have pursued a deal in good faith, doing their jobs in representing Israel’s interests which, they believe, is to pull the country back from the brink of regional war and bring their citizens home. Their own prime minister has undermined them.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant—whom no one has ever accused of caring about a Palestinian life much less of being a man of peace—has publicly criticized his boss for a lack of strategy and stretching the war out. Other Israeli leaders have leaked their concerns anonymously or even given anonymous statements.
There is significant dissent even in the Israeli military, intelligence, and political establishment. There is also a great deal of fear of Netanyahu there, and a certain reluctance that any state official would feel in any country about criticizing the leader during a time of war.
How much difference might it make if the Democratic nominee, and, possibly, in a few months, the president-elect of the United States was backing those critics? How many more might there be, and how many of the ones there already might be willing to go on the record?
At any other time in Israel such an idea would have been unthinkable. Now, it might help to spur even more internal dissent, especially at a moment where it is starting to seem like the Democrats might hold the White House in November. And, of course, where the United States leads on matters pertaining to Israel, the feckless Europeans routinely follow.
Harris can make these things happen. Would it be enough? Who can say? But we can say for certain that it would do a lot more than Biden’s strategy of bear-hugging one of the bloodiest, far-right leaders on the planet.
Netanyahu believes he’s got the Democrats trapped, and that they dare not push too hard for a ceasefire. Thus far, he’s been right, but at least part of that calculus is Joe Biden’s weakness as a leader and his irrational, almost religious zeal for supporting Israel regardless of the consequences. Harris can be different.
The clock is ticking. With the collapse of the latest round of talks, Iran, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, et al will be readying their response to Israel’s recent provocations. Maybe that’s not the action that triggers a regional war, but this can only go on so long before something does.
Biden is not going to act, and Donald Trump’s solution is to finish the genocide faster. Kamala Harris has the unusual opportunity to distinguish herself as a world leader before even taking office. She should avail herself of it quickly.
My Latest Articles
Audio Interview: Can A Deal For Iran Not to Retaliate in Exchange For A Ceasefire in Gaza be Made?
I spoke with Ian Masters of Background Briefing, discussing whether there was any chance that a renewed push for a ceasefire has any hope of success. The details are interesting, but spoiler alert: the answer is no.
Background Briefing, August 11, 2024
Voters are sending a clear message ahead of the DNC: An arms embargo on Israel is good policy and good politics
Democrats are looking to unite the party during their National Convention in Chicago and polls show one way for Kamala Harris to do this is to pledge to stop arming Israel.
Mondoweiss, August 16, 2024
News Roundup
Leaked Israeli Docs Reveal Effort to Evade Foreign Agent Lobbying Law
By Lee Fang and Jack Poulson, LeeFang.com, August 17, 2024
How US policy in the Middle East is unravelling
Jehad Abusalim, Middle East Eye, August 17, 2024
New Poll Suggests Gaza Ceasefire and Arms Embargo Would Help Dems with Swing State Voters
Prem Thakker, Zeteo, August 14, 2024
Humanitarian pauses vital for critical polio vaccination campaign in the Gaza Strip
World Health Organization, August 16, 2024
Hind Rajab’s death has already been forgotten. That’s exactly what Israel wants
Owen Jones, The Guardian, August 18, 2024
Harris Can Change Biden’s Policy on Israel Just by Upholding the Law
Peter Beinart, New York Times, August 18, 2024
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"Harris can make these things happen. Would it be enough? Who can say? But we can say for certain that it would do a lot more than Biden’s strategy of bear-hugging one of the bloodiest, far-right leaders on the planet."
I totally agree and for her to have the courage to at least verbally distance herself from the Biden catastrophic policy could reap dividends for getting a change in stopping Israel.