Iran-Israel Confrontation: Where Are We Now?
Iran showed restraint, and Joe Biden did something right. But a lot depends on what Israel's irrational leadership does next.
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Iran conducted an attack on Israel Saturday night, launching hundreds of drones and missiles from Iranian territory. The attack was unprecedented in the sense that Iran has never before directly attacked Israel, a claim that cannot be made in the reverse. Not only has Israel perpetrated numerous clandestine operations on Iranian soil, including assassinations and sabotage, but this Iranian attack itself was a response to Israel having bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus. A country’s embassies and consulates are considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Yet from the public statements from western countries, one would never know that there was any precipitating event that led to this Iranian strike. An unaware reader would think that this was an unprovoked attack stemming from Iran’s madness and unrelenting hatred of Israel.
In fact, Iran’s attack was a measured response. It was not intended to cause significant damage to Israel, not even to the military sites that were exclusively targeted by the Iranian drones and missiles. The Islamic Republic let everyone, including the United States and Israel, know what it was about to do, intentionally giving them all plenty of time to prepare their defenses.
So, what was the meaning of the response? And where did it leave the various players? Here is a breakdown of what it means for each state involved.
Israel
There was no precipitating event to explain why Israel suddenly decided to bomb Iran’s consulate in Damascus. It was a choice, and the only reason Israel chose to escalate was in pursuit of the larger goal of provoking a war with Iran, in the hope that it would draw the United States into the fighting as well. We are fortunate they failed.
I recently explained in this piece for Mondoweiss what the Israeli far-right’s agenda is. They know they have a limited time in control of Israel, and they know as well that a more typical Israeli right-wing government is unlikely to go as far as they will to provoke a war they and their far-right, neoconservative, and Christian Zionist fellow travelers in the United States desperately want.
Israel’s defense systems were easily able to shield against Iran’s attack, reportedly downing 99% of the drones and missiles fired at it. But, while this was the first time Israel’s defenses were tested against missiles of the kind Iran has, having been forewarned—which allowed not only Israel to prepare but also the U.S., UK, and other allies—limits how certain Israel can be of their air defense system. Make no mistake, they know it is a very strong system, but they knew that before. Just how potent it would be against a surprise attack from more launch points remains to be seen.
But Israel gained a lot from this attack. Their support around the world had been severely declining due to their genocidal program in Gaza. The sheer volume of projectiles launched at Israel helped to recast Israel’s image as the victim of unrelenting hostility from its “rough neighborhood.”
This has always been a key tool for Israel, and it’s why their talking points about the Palestinians so frequently refer to Iranian backing or funding. When it’s Israel versus the Palestinians, Israel is the bully. When it is Israel versus regional foes that have allied militias throughout the region, be that foe Iran or various Arab states, Israel can more easily convince people it is a poor victim under siege.
There is also every reason to believe that this Iranian attack is exactly the lubricant needed to grease the track on which Joe Biden’s $14 billion supplemental aid package for Israel is stuck. At this writing, the standoff over a larger bill that includes that aid to Israel remains in place, but there is no question that Iran’s attack has increased pressure to find a way to pass the aid to Israel.
[As an aside, it’s worth noting that the aid to Ukraine—which indisputably has a far more urgent and immediate need for aid right now than Israel does—has not seen such a boost in support, despite repeated pleas from its president.]
A government that was more interested in the well-being of its citizens than zealous visions of destruction of rivals and keeping a corrupt prime minister in power would recognize that Israel had gotten off very lightly for what is a huge transgression in the international arena, and got some bonuses out of it to boot. This government, however, does not appear poised to do so.
Yoav Gallant has directly informed his American counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, that Israel will retaliate. But the current thinking seems to be that Israel will aim its retaliation at Iranian proxies, rather than Iran itself. That, if it turns out to be the case, is undoubtedly Israel yielding to American pressure (a strong reminder of what the United States could do if it had the political will to do it). More on that in the U.S. section.
Iran
Some will see the failure of Iran to do any damage to Israel as a loss. But since the Iranian government was more interested in avoiding a regional confrontation than actually harming Israel, it was not. Still, the success Iran had was qualified.
While it may not be immediately apparent to everyone, Iran made it clear to Israel that it was capable of defending itself and was prepared to do so. The Israeli military understands very well that the fact that Iran’s barrage did insignificant damage had a great deal to do with the fact that the United States and United Kingdom intercepted many of the projectiles before Israel needed to deal with them. And both Israel and its allies were able to do that because Iran gave them advance warning. Iran is not going to warn Israel and its allies if it wants to do real damage in the future.
On the other hand there is the issue of strain placed on Iran’s relationships with the Arab world. The Islamic Republic has been trying to lower the volume on its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, and has met with gradual success in that effort.
But the Saudis see that effort as hedging their bets in case the United States doesn’t come through on a defense pact and nuclear assistance that Riyadh desires as compensation for normalizing relations with Israel. They have clearly decided to go in deeper on the regional alliance the United States has been working for years to broker, preferring this as their primary security goal rather than relying on rapprochement with Iran.
This attack indicated that the alliance is coalescing, despite the continued absence of normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Saudi participation in downing Iranian drones and missiles, which they officially acknowledged, is significant in this regard, despite Israel’s actions in Gaza still posing difficulties for Riyadh in its unstated desire to abandon the Palestinians and normalize with Israel.
Still, as part of that bigger picture, Saudi participation in the operation to down Iranian aircraft should not be overstated. Saudi Arabia, as well as Jordan and the UAE, had a strong interest in making sure that, whatever Iran’s intentions, the risk of damage to Israel was minimized. They would pay some of the highest prices if there were a regional war.
Iran had little choice but to take some action against Israel after Israel’s Damascus attack. Israel had bombed sovereign Iranian territory. For years, Iran had not directly retaliated for Israeli attacks, even including sabotage and assassinations on Iranian soil. But they couldn’t afford to do it in this case. It was too brazen an attack and Tehran would have looked too weak if it stayed, in their words, “patient.”
Given that, it must be said that Iran also went to great lengths to make sure their reprisal didn’t lead to a regional war. They did it in a way that demonstrated that their weaponry was capable of reaching Israel, was capable of targeting specific sites in the country (only military targets were selected), and could be deployed quickly and efficiently.
Iran can and likely will point out the hypocrisy of the condemnation of its attack while Israel’s was met with silence. But that’s an old tune, and really only plays to those of us who are already familiar with the west’s hypocrisy. More important will be seeing how Iranian criticisms of Arab states for defending Israel play in the Arab world. There will certainly be a large, receptive audience in the Arab world to a message that while Iran and its allied militias have defended the Palestinians, the Jordanians, Saudis, and Emiratis defended Israel. Thus far, Iran has been muted in its criticisms, but that may not last.
United States
Regardless of whether Iran was right or wrong in its action, a strike that did severe damage, and especially one that took Israeli lives, would almost certainly have sparked another, larger escalation, and possibly a regional war. Regardless as well of whether sympathies are with Israel, Iran, or the Palestinians, that was an outcome that would have been horrific for everyone.
For once, then, Joe Biden did something right. In coordination with Israel, the UK, France, and Jordan, and using intelligence from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the United States acted to prevent many of the drones and missiles from reaching Israel and coordinated with the Israeli air force to help them down those that did.
Immediately after the attack, Biden—once he’d made his pro forma statement about American commitment to Israel’s security being “ironclad” (a term that has now been thoroughly worn out)—informed Netanyahu that the U.S. would not back a retaliatory strike.
That swift statement by Biden was crucial. It certainly eliminated any possibility of an immediate, knee-jerk Israeli response. Biden’s advisers surely knew that Israel would want to respond in some fashion, but this statement meant an escalatory strike on Iranian soil was out of the question, and only a limited one could even be considered. Without U.S. support, Israel would not be able to launch a major strike, especially since if the U.S. didn’t back such an action, it is highly unlikely that Saudi Arabia or Jordan, much less Iraq, would allow Israeli aircraft to pass through their airspace.
That it was a firm statement was important as well. Israel has been trying to work with Washington to find a way to strike back at Iran “in coordination” with the United States, one which the U.S. would agree is not likely to escalate to a larger conflict. Basically, they’re trying to negotiate the maximum the U.S. will allow. As a result, some believe it more likely that Israel will strike at an Iranian proxy, launch a massive cyberattack, or, if it does target Iran itself, the attack would be narrow. While that doesn’t completely eliminate the danger of a regional conflict, and the possibility remains one misstep away, it does lower the immediate risk.
Clearly, as well, Washington has communicated to Israel that it didn’t appreciate the Damascus attack having been executed with no warning. Given the disaster that Biden’s policies in the Middle East have been since the beginning of his administration, the attack by Iran and its aftermath have been handled quite well, comparatively.
Jordan and other Arab states
Finally, a few words on Jordan. They were the most surprising participant in this incident, and they took a significant risk in their action.
There is a large Palestinian population in Jordan, and the antipathy for Israel, always strong, is unsurprisingly off the charts since the Gaza genocide began. The perception that they helped defend Israel angered a great many Jordanians. Given Jordan’s economic difficulties, angering the public with an action like this one is not helpful for the Hashemite Kingdom’s stability.
The government’s argument that they were defending Jordan from objects that entered its airspace is nonsense. They knew they had nothing to worry about, as they knew exactly where those missiles and drones were headed. Indeed, shooting them down over their own territory was a graver danger to Jordanian civilians than letting them pass by. But they were trying to help ensure that a regional conflict was not sparked, a particular danger for Jordan, given its location right in between Iran and Israel.
Still, this brings renewed scrutiny to Jordan’s relationships with the U.S. and Israel, and especially to the deep defense partnership with Washington agreed to in 2021. Jordan’s King Abdullah II walks a fine balancing act.
This was why Jordan was so alarmed about Iran publicly denouncing them for “helping Israel,” and why they were quick to argue that they were not siding with Israel and would shoot down any foreign projectiles that violated their airspace. While it remains to be seen if they would really shoot down an Israeli drone, missile, or, especially a staffed aircraft, they were sending a clear message to Israel to leave them out of any retaliatory plans.
But on the regional level, the cooperation on this from Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is another step toward cementing the regional, anti-Iran alliance that has been Washington’s goal for years.
Where does that leave us? The situation remains very volatile, and a lot will depend on how Israel behaves in the coming days. But it should not be lost on anyone that older policy decisions have brought us here.
As much as Biden deserves some credit for his quick restraint of Israel, we need to recall that if he had acted when he first took office to reverse the idiotic and disastrous decision by Donald Trump to abrogate the Iran nuclear deal without cause, the temperature of the entire region would be much lower today. And, of course, it must not be forgotten that all of this ends with an end to the Gaza genocide, a return of the hostages in Gaza, and the fall of the current Netanyahu government which would follow those events.
News Roundup
Leaked NYT Gaza Memo Tell Journalists To Avoid Words “Genocide,” “Ethnic Cleansing,” and “Occupied Territory”
By Jeremy Scahill and Ryan Grim, The Intercept, April 15, 2024, https://theintercept.com/2024/04/15/nyt-israel-gaza-genocide-palestine-coverage/
Sudan: One year since conflict began, response from international community remains woefully inadequate
Amnesty International, April 12, 2024,
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/04/sudan-one-year-since-conflict-began-response-from-international-community-remains-woefully-inadequate/
'My school abandoned me': California university cancels pro-Palestinian student's commencement speech
Middle East Eye, April 16, 2024,
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/my-school-abandoned-me-california-university-cancels-pro-palestinian-students-commencement
‘Playing with fire’: Ukraine’s frustration grows with US lawmakers, Europe
By John T Psaropoulos, Al Jazeera, April 16, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/16/ukraines-frustration-grows-with-us-lawmakers-europe-playing-with-fire
The Speech That Got Me Banned From Germany
By Yanis Varoufakis, Jacobin, April 13, 2024,
https://jacobin.com/2024/04/yanis-varoufakis-germany-banned-palestine-gaza
The government has transferred authority over the Real Estate Enforcement Division to Ben Gvir
Peace Now, April 14, 2024,
https://peacenow.org.il/en/the-government-has-transferred-authority-over-the-real-estate-enforcement-division-to-ben-gvir
My Latest Articles
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