Sorry, Israeli Friends, This War Will Only Make You Less Secure

The Netanyahu government thrives on insecurity. That's why the belief most Jewish Israelis have that the war on Iran will finally bring them some security is horribly misplaced.

Mar 22, 2026

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Watching a recent news clip where a reporter asked a few Israelis about their views of the war on Iran, I was struck by the delusional outlook they had. I don’t refer here to the particular individuals the reporter spoke to, but to a clear majority of Jewish Israelis.

There is an overwhelming sense of Israel having their moment right now. It is very much reflected in the words of Benjamin Netanyahu whenever he speaks, whether to an Israeli or a global audience, whether in Hebrew or English. He is basking in his dream of forty years: a war to destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran.

That goal may be one that is shared in the abstract by most Israeli Jews. But they don’t realize that Netanyahu’s interests and their own are quite different.

In his first press conference in English since the start of this criminal war of choice, Netanyahu outlined the priorities that Israelis have. “The most important thing, the most important thing, is to assure the security of your people,” he said.

Indeed, as unpopular a leader as Netanyahu is (and this war has done little to change his standing in the eyes of the Israeli public), the Israeli public does back him in this war. They do so because they believe this war will eliminate not just the strongest opponent of Israel in the region, but the main source of material support to Palestinian militants. Iran is both of those things.

The problem is that while Israel could perhaps atomize the Iranian state—which is likely the only way to bring about the demise of the Islamic Republic in the near term—it’s not going to make Israelis more secure. And Netanyahu is very well aware of that.

Israel’s goal is not to bring peace and stability to the Middle East so Israelis can go about their day securely. The goal instead is to maintain an atmosphere of insecurity so that the strongest country militarily will be able to dominate a region characterized by failed and dysfunctional states alongside friendly autocracies.

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The strategy is visible

Israel has acted in a manner that cannot be explained by any motivation other than sowing instability. The strategy is visible not only in Iran, but in Lebanon and Syria as well.

The massive destruction Israel has leveled upon Lebanon since the war began is willfully disproportionate. When Hezbollah launched an attack on Israel, the response was massive, and portrayed as if there was no reason for it.

In fact, Israel had violated the ceasefire with Hezbollah over 10,000 times since it was instituted on November 27, 2024 until the Hezbollah attack on March 1, an attack that caused no casualties in Israel. While the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was the trigger for this Hezbollah attack, there had been massive Israeli provocation before that.

As of March 21, the death toll in Lebanon stood at 1,204, of whom 79 were women and 118 children. By March 16, the number of displaced people in Lebanon moved past one million, in a small country of only about 5.4 million. Israel is intentionally targeting health care workers and facilities as well as journalists.

Hezbollah has proven difficult to root out, and with Israel preparing to launch a ground invasion, this war could go on even beyond the end of the war on Iran, whenever that might be. It is looking dismayingly familiar, reminding one of how Israel approached its genocide in Gaza.

While Israel clearly would not try to entirely replicate the genocide, a long term occupation of Lebanon—recalling Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982-2000—does seem to be the plan. Israel is well aware that even if Hezbollah can be eliminated, or close to it, other groups would appear in short order, giving them every excuse they need to continue an occupation.

There is even a push to establish Jewish settlements in southern Lebanon. This would be controversial in Israel, and it would be expensive, so is not likely to happen for years. But, especially watching the increasingly clear annexation of the West Bank, it is a lot more possible now than it was during Israel’s last occupation.

With or without settlement there, an occupation of southern Lebanon is not going to make Israelis safer. On the contrary, it is a recipe for expanding the motivation for attacks and provides a fertile ground for new militant groups, both Lebanese and foreign. This isn’t a guess; it’s what happens when Israel or the United States occupies Arab land, without fail.

The desire for instability is even clearer when we look at Syria.

On Friday, Israel launched an attack against the Syrian army, claiming it was done in defense of Druze Syrians who had come under attack the previous day.

The excuse is more than dubious. Just a few days prior, there were reports of substantive progress between the Damascus government and the Druze leadership in Suwayda province, which has been calling for autonomy. Israel claims to support the Druze, though their aid is problematic for Druze throughout Syria and was never requested.

In fact, Israel was concerned about progress in negotiations, as it opposes a fully centralized Syrian government (in sharp contrast to its demand that Lebanon assume full governmental authority, and uses its failure to do so as a pretext for attacks there). This despite the fact that Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa has clearly severed the relationship with Iran, stood in solidarity with the Arab states against Iran, been feted at the White House, and has even reached out to open relations with Israel despite Israel’s blatantly illegal capture of more Syrian land since the fall of Bashar al Asad.

Meanwhile, the war on Iran has rekindled tensions in Iraq as well as in Syria.

Israel is content with the dependence Jordan and Egypt have on the United States to ensure that they will, essentially, behave as Israel wants them to, within some boundaries and making allowances for necessary public statements to appease populations that support the Palestinian cause and whose loathing of Israel Netanyahu stokes on a daily basis.

But the view in Israel is that peace is neither possible nor desirable. Instead, the region must be placed under the Israeli thumb to such an extent that Israel will have complete impunity to act even independent of American support. That is only more desirable since that support is no longer the iron-clad guarantee it once was.

That is an effort that can only breed intense resentment and hostility. In such a circumstance, violence is inevitable. And the resulting insecurity will keep the far right strong in Israel.

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Endless war

There is little hope that Israel will change course. Whether Netanyahu retains his office after the election in the fall—and he very well may—or he is replaced by Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eizenkot or any other Israeli leader, this policy of endless war will remain.

How it is pursued might change; without a Bezalel Smotrich or an Itamar Ben Gvir in a coalition, there might be a need to pursue the policy in a more diplomatic, not to say stealthy, fashion. But the policy of insecurity is foundational for Israel and has been so across multiple governments.

We can see this not only by the support the entire Israeli political spectrum has given for the war effort—even the most “left” Zionist leader, Yair Golan, has criticized the lack of strategy, not the war itself, much like leading American Democrats—but by the popularity and even trust Netanyahu gets from Jewish Israelis for his part in this policy.

They’re going to be disappointed, however these wars end.

At this stage, many possible paths remain open for where the various wars Israel is involved in can go. In the Iran war, much will depend on the decisions of the pliable man in the White House. Between the ease with which he can be manipulated, his vast ignorance of what he’s gotten into, and his mercurial nature, predicting that is a fool’s errand.

But we can say with a high degree of certainty that Israel is digging in for a long term occupation of both Lebanon and Syria, while escalating its ethnic cleansing program in the West Bank, and awaiting its opportunity to “finish the job” in Gaza.

If the Islamic Republic survives this war, it will be weakened, and there will be even less regional deterrence against Israel than before, which was obviously not adequate.

If it does not, there is likely to be chaos pouring out of the Persian Gulf, with the attendant regional dangers, many of which will be focused on Israel.

As the war continues, and in its aftermath, regardless of the outcome, the growing split between the UAE—which is aligning with Israel and the U.S.—and Saudi Arabia—which is deepening its relationships with Pakistan and Türkiye in an effort to reduce its dependency on the United States—will play out in more proxy conflicts such as those we’ve seen in Yemen and Sudan.

That’s an awful lot of death and destruction in this region, even if it doesn’t mushroom into a world war, as it very well could.

Tell me, people of Israel: does all of this really sound like a more secure future to you?

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Sorry, Israeli Friends, This War Will Only Make You Less Secure

The Netanyahu government thrives on insecurity. That's why the belief most Jewish Israelis have that the war on Iran will finally bring them some security is horribly misplaced.

My Recent Articles and Media

News Roundup

Discussion about this post

Ready for more?