SPECIAL EDITION: US and Iran May Be Near An Agreement
The MOU reportedly being discussed between the two parties could lead to a permanent ceasefire, start a process to fully end the conflict, and impair Israel's influence on US policy
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With reports swirling of a pending Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran, amidst the wailing of Iran hawks and neoconservative forces and Israeli rage, U.S. President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social platform to send a message about the situation this morning.
Here are the key points:
“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side.”
“Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb.”
“I would like to thank, thus far, all of the countries of the Middle East for their support and cooperation, which will be further enhanced and strengthened by their joining the Nations of the historic Abraham Accords and, who knows, perhaps the Islamic Republic of Iran would like to join, as well!”
So, what does all that mean?
We can’t be sure until we see what the MOU says. Initial reports say that the deal includes an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon; the release of several billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets; the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the withdrawal of American forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran.
Iran would then allow passage through the Strait, easing the global energy crisis. Once the agreement is in place, there would be a 30-day window for negotiations, which could be extended, on Iran’s nuclear program and a permanent arrangement for the Strait, with the goal of a permanent agreement ending hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
If those are the broad contours—and they leave the door open for an awful lot to go wrong—how do we interpret Trump’s post this morning?
Reversion to the status quo ante
If the reports about the MOU are even close to correct, the Iran hawks and the Israeli government have every reason to be furious. This would amount to a complete capitulation in the war.
The MOU, as reported, would essentially restore the strategic status quo ante of February 27, before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. Nothing will have been gained aside from massive destruction in Iran and the neighboring Gulf states. Indeed, Iran will have won some measure of economic relief.
The nuclear issue will still need to be negotiated, but the Iranian government will have survived. This point is reinforced by Trump’s own post, where he fantasizes, absurdly, about “The Islamic Republic of Iran” joining the Abraham Accords.
Set aside the impossibility of such an event while Palestine remains unresolved for the moment. The fact that Trump, not for the first time, has referred to the Islamic Republic indicates his recognition that regime change is completely off the table, in the short and long term. If the current Iranian government should be ousted, it will be entirely due to the actions of the Iranian people, not the U.S., Israel, or any other outside party.
That’s not lost on Iranians, whether in the government, the opposition, or those radical royalists who celebrate the bombing of their own country.
What’s not being discussed
It is notable that we continue to hear nothing about Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for allied groups around the Middle east (which are dismissively and mistakenly referred to by so many as “proxies”).
It’s been clear for some time, and is still obvious, that the Trump administration has recognized that there is nothing to discuss regarding these matters. Iran has used both of those tools to defend itself against vastly superior militaries. They’re not going to willingly give up their strongest deterrents when their entire goal throughout has been to guarantee that such attacks as the 12-Day War and this latest confrontation are not repeated.
But omissions are not all good news. While the leaked details of the MOU (which, it bears repeating, are not confirmed as accurate, nor, even if they are, are they necessarily what he final document will reflect) say that Lebanon will be included in the end of hostilities, there is no mention of Israel. That means there is nothing to ensure that Israel will cooperate.
At the last ceasefire, both Iran and Pakistan stated plainly that Lebanon was to be included. Israel said this was not the case and continued to bombard Lebanon. Eventually, the U.S. supported the Israeli position. If that happens this time, Iran will have to choose between abandoning Lebanon or abandoning the ceasefire. Tehran was spared that decision by Trump’s foolish decision to blockade Iranian ports, which caused Iran to reverse its decision to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Expanding the Abraham Accords is not on the table
Trump got plenty of attention with his proclamation about other countries joining the Abraham Accords. Rest assured, this is nonsense.
Lindsey Graham, once again showing his remarkable skill for toadyism, called this a “brilliant proposal,” and said, “Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan joining the Abraham Accords would be beyond transformative for the region and world. It is a brilliant move by President Trump.”
Let’s be clear: this is not remotely possible, and it is not part of what is being considered right now. On the contrary, all those countries see Israel as a regional threat. Even if they believe, at the moment, that Iran is a greater threat, they all know that some accommodation with Iran is necessary and achievable. Not so with Israel unless they are willing to be partners in Israel’s genocidal program against the Palestinians and its regional aggression.
This is simply Trump daydreaming in text.
Indeed, there is no indication that Israel has any interest in normalizing with Pakistan, much less Qatar, which Israel sees as a Hamas supporter and ius at the center of several domestic scandals embroiling Netanyahu.
Excluding Israel
One of the best reasons to hope that the reports of the MOU are real and might come to fruition is the freezing out of Israel from the talks.
Trump has had his talks with Netanyahu, but they have been informative, not preparative. Netanyahu, who was at the head of the table in planning the war on Iran, is not even in the room while discussing diplomacy.
Of course, there’s no real need for him to be there, from Trump’s perspective. He knows what Netanyahu wants: a continuation of the war. But the exclusion reflects the fact that Trump has realized, far too late, that Netanyahu has been lying to him and manipulating him.
What everyone knew from the beginning dawned on Trump only after the war had gone on to the point where it was apparent, even to him, that there was never any gain in it for him, his cronies, or the United States.
Netanyahu has nothing to add to diplomacy except for poison pills. As a result, any hope for an end to this war before it gets to the point of absolute destruction of Iran—an outcome which would bring the Gulf Arab countries down with it—necessitates Israel’s exclusion. And that’s just what has happened.
Hawks know it all too well. Senator Roger Wicker, the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, put it quite succinctly: “The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”
The accusation that Iran is unreliable is laughable. It was, of course, Trump who tore up the JCPOA despite his own cabinet affirming that Iran was sticking to its terms. It was Trump who attacked Iran twice when negotiations were progressing, the second time when the mediator actually came to American media to tell them that there was an agreement within reach that actually would have restricted Iran’s nuclear ambitions even further than the JCPOA, which is what Trump ostensibly wanted.
But Wicker’s hysterics are telling, as were those of other hawks. Ted Cruz, for instance, said, “If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’—now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.”
Similarly, Graham said that, “This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.”
That’s utter nonsense. Iran has always been able to threaten passage through the Strait of Hormuz and to inflict major damage on Gulf oil infrastructure. That’s precisely why no president before Trump was stupid enough to attack them directly. It’s the attempt to change that reality of geography that led to this disastrous war of choice.
The good news is that even Graham is speaking in terms that indicate he is outside of these discussions. Trump is not seeking his input on this, as he did in the run-up to the war. Trump may have realized that Graham has been parroting Netanyahu’s stance.
In any case, this process is driving a wedge between Netanyahu and Trump, in a way that could, if subsequent American leaders want it to, severely diminish Israel’s ability to influence American foreign policy as it has in recent years.
Iran has noticed.
An unnamed Iranian official told Drop Site News’ Jeremy Scahill that, “Israel is currently undertaking its final extensive efforts and applying considerable pressure to disrupt the formation of this agreement. We hope that the U.S. administration will make its decision independently of external influence and in favor of the broader collective interests of all parties involved.”
If Trump makes the right decision, that could have a profound and long-lasting impact on America’s Middle East policy.
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